Australia's ASIC says retail prediction markets fail the public-interest test as Polymarket stays blocked

ASIC chair Sarah Court told a parliamentary hearing that prediction markets for retail clients do not clearly serve the public interest, drawing a parallel to banned binary options — while Polymarket remains blocked by ACMA under Australia's gambling law.

Australia’s corporate regulator is signalling that it sees little room for prediction markets aimed at everyday investors. On October 29, 2026, Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) chair Sarah Court told a parliamentary hearing that the regulator is not convinced such markets serve the public interest when offered to retail clients — a stance that lands while one of the sector’s biggest names, Polymarket, is already blocked in the country.

The binary-options parallel

The most telling detail is what ASIC compared these products to. According to Crypto Briefing, any future application from a prediction-market operator would be assessed in a similar way to binary options — products ASIC has banned for retail clients until October 1, 2031.

That history is not flattering for the format. Before the ban, between 74% and 77% of active retail binary-options clients lost money, with total retail losses of about A$15.7 million set against roughly A$1.7 million in gains. Invoking that precedent is a strong hint about how ASIC views an all-or-nothing payoff structure in retail hands.

No operator has even applied

Court also noted that ASIC has not received a single application from a prediction-market operator seeking to run services in Australia. In other words, the market is operating in the country’s orbit without anyone having sought a local license.

The regulator has been building a paper trail. In August 2026, ASIC’s Moneysmart service warned Australians to steer clear of unlicensed prediction-market platforms, describing them as “akin to gambling” and noting that no operator holds an Australian financial market license. Commissioner Alan Kirkland reinforced the message, flagging both the risk of losing everything staked and the danger that better-informed participants — potentially trading on information ordinary users don’t have — hold the edge.

Polymarket is already blocked

The warnings sit on top of an existing block. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) classified Polymarket as illegal online gambling under the Interactive Gambling Act and blocked it in 2025, per the same report, even as the platform continued listing contracts tied to Australian political events.

Enforcement, though, has limits. Australians can still reach offshore platforms through VPNs that mask their location — but Court’s point is that anyone who does gets none of the protections local regulation would provide. ASIC has also reminded Australian financial-services licensees that their obligations still apply if they facilitate access to these platforms.

The bottom line

Australia is not banning prediction markets by statute, but the direction of travel is clear: no local licenses issued, no applications received, a sitting block on Polymarket, and a regulator openly comparing the retail version to products it has already prohibited. For anyone weighing these platforms, the regulatory risk is now as real as the market risk. If you are thinking about where crypto activity is actually regulated and protected, our explainer on how to evaluate a crypto exchange walks through the licensing checks that matter.

News summary based on the reporting cited above, current as of late October 2026. Dates, loss figures and the ACMA block reflect those reports; verify specifics against ASIC and ACMA notices before acting. For general information only; not legal or financial advice.